Chelsea beat AFC Bournemouth 5–1. Chelsea had 10 shots (6 on target) to AFC Bournemouth's 9 (4), with 50% of the ball against 50%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 1.5, so AFC Bournemouth created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Chelsea beat AFC Bournemouth 5–1. Chelsea had 10 shots (6 on target) to AFC Bournemouth's 9 (4), with 50% of the ball against 50%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 1.5, so AFC Bournemouth created the better chances and still lost the game.
Chelsea 5–1 AFC Bournemouth, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Chelsea 44%, the draw 24% and AFC Bournemouth 31%.
Full-time: Possession 50%–50%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–1.5, Shots 10–9, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 7–6, Big chances 2–3, Corners 1–7, Saves 3–1, Fouls 7–15, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 0–4.
Yes — both Chelsea and AFC Bournemouth scored, finishing 5–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.