Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth prediction — Premier League · Sat 10 Oct · 15:00 UK

Premier League · Sat 10 Oct · 15:00 UK
44Chelsea win24Draw31AFC Bournemouth win
Full time
5–1

How it finished

Chelsea beat AFC Bournemouth 5–1. Chelsea had 10 shots (6 on target) to AFC Bournemouth's 9 (4), with 50% of the ball against 50%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 1.5, so AFC Bournemouth created the better chances and still lost the game.

ChelseaFull-time statsBournemouth
50%Possession50%
1.1Expected goals (xG)1.5
10Shots9
6Shots on target4
7Shots inside box6
2Big chances3
1Corners7
3Saves1
7Fouls15
1Offsides0
0Yellow cards4
We predicted
2–1
Likeliest score if Chelsea win (9%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (11%)
Expected goals
1.8v1.4
3.2 in total
Both teams score
63%
Yes
3+ goals
62%
Likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

ChelseaChelseaAFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
1.8Goals1.4
16.9Shots15.4
5.5On target6.8
6.7Corners5.0
ChelseaChelseaAFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
1.0Goals0.8
7.9Shots7.3
2.6On target3.2
3.1Corners2.4
ChelseaChelseaAFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
0.8Goals0.6
9.0Shots8.1
2.9On target3.6
3.5Corners2.7

What we said the chances were

2 or more goals83%
Chelsea to score83%
Goal before half-time83%
AFC Bournemouth to score76%

First half — what we expected

Chelsea
62%
to score before half-time
AFC Bournemouth
55%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

ChelseaChelseaAFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
62%7+ shots55%
40%9+ shots33%
69%2+ shots on target79%
27%4+ shots on target39%
77%2+ corners63%
37%4+ corners23%

League position

AFC Bournemouth in their league tableUpper half

Head to head

Dec 2025Chelsea 2–2 AFC Bournemouth
Dec 2025AFC Bournemouth 0–0 Chelsea
Jan 2025Chelsea 2–2 AFC Bournemouth
Sept 2024AFC Bournemouth 0–1 Chelsea
May 2024Chelsea 2–1 AFC Bournemouth
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Premier League table →
All fixtures & results →Chelsea form →AFC Bournemouth form →

Common questions

Who won Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?

Chelsea beat AFC Bournemouth 5–1. Chelsea had 10 shots (6 on target) to AFC Bournemouth's 9 (4), with 50% of the ball against 50%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 1.5, so AFC Bournemouth created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?

Chelsea 5–1 AFC Bournemouth, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Chelsea 44%, the draw 24% and AFC Bournemouth 31%.

What were the stats in Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?

Full-time: Possession 50%–50%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–1.5, Shots 10–9, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 7–6, Big chances 2–3, Corners 1–7, Saves 3–1, Fouls 7–15, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 0–4.

Did both teams score in Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?

Yes — both Chelsea and AFC Bournemouth scored, finishing 5–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.