Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelChelsea on top, and Cole Palmer getting plenty of shots away.
Chelsea v Leeds United prediction
Chelsea are favourites on our numbers: 49% to win, against 26% for Leeds United and 25% for a draw. Our predicted score is Chelsea 2–1 Leeds United, the likeliest Chelsea win score (9%). Chelsea are expected to score 1.8 goals and Leeds United 1.2, 3.0 between them. Both teams scoring is 58% and three or more goals is 57%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Chelsea have won three, Leeds United one, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Chelsea 6–3 Leeds United, in Sept 2026. On shots, our forecast is 15.8 for Chelsea and 10.2 for Leeds United, with 4.9 and 3.7 on target, and corners at 6.5 to 3.2. So we expect Chelsea to do more of the shooting.
Of the players, Cole Palmer of Chelsea tops our shots forecast at 2.9, if they start. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds United) leads for shots on target, at 1.0. For cards, Jorrel Hato (Chelsea) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. On form, Chelsea have three wins, one draw and two defeats from their last six games, and Leeds United have one win, three draws and two defeats. Bawler's pick for this game is Chelsea or Draw, Chelsea Over 11.5 Shots and Cole Palmer 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 48% chance, which makes the fair price 11/10 (2.10).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Chelsea · last 6
Leeds United · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Chelsea or draw is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Bawler's model rates this match: Chelsea are favoured (49% win probability vs 26% for Leeds United, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Bawler's predicted score is Chelsea 2-1 Leeds United: the most likely score if Chelsea win, which is the likeliest result (49%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.5%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Chelsea 49%, the draw 25% and Leeds United 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Chelsea expecting 1.75 goals and Leeds United 1.21.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.
When are the Chelsea v Leeds United line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Chelsea v Leeds United?
Chelsea or Draw (74%), Chelsea Over 11.5 Shots (80%), Cole Palmer 2+ Shots (73%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.10). 18+, please gamble responsibly.