Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAtlético Madrid on top, with Julián Álvarez our likeliest to test the keeper.
Getafe v Atlético Madrid prediction
Our model makes Atlético Madrid favourites for this LaLiga game, giving them a 47% chance of winning. Getafe are 25% and the draw is 29%. Our predicted score is Getafe 0–1 Atlético Madrid, the likeliest Atlético Madrid win score (13%). Getafe are expected to score 1.0 goals and Atlético Madrid 1.4, 2.4 between them. Both teams scoring is only 47% and three or more goals comes in at 42%.
On shots, our forecast is 11.1 for Getafe and 12.8 for Atlético Madrid, with 3.5 and 4.0 on target, and corners at 4.2 to 5.5. For cards, Allan Nyom (Getafe) has been booked about once a game in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Getafe have won one, Atlético Madrid four. When they last met, it finished Atlético Madrid 4–1 Getafe, in Jul 2026. In their last six games Getafe have two wins, one draw and three defeats, while Atlético Madrid have four wins, one draw and one defeat. Both lost their most recent match. Bawler's pick for this game is Atlético Madrid or Draw, Atlético Madrid Over 8.5 Shots and Julián Álvarez 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 45% chance, which makes the fair price 6/5 (2.22).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Getafe · last 6
Atlético Madrid · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Atlético Madrid or draw is 75% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Getafe vs Atlético Madrid?
Bawler's model rates this match: Atlético Madrid are favoured (47% win probability vs 25% for Getafe, 29% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Getafe vs Atlético Madrid?
Bawler's predicted score is Getafe 0-1 Atlético Madrid: the most likely score if Atlético Madrid win, which is the likeliest result (47%). Our model puts that exact score at 12.9%. Expected total goals: 2.4.
How does Bawler predict Getafe vs Atlético Madrid?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Getafe 25%, the draw 29% and Atlético Madrid 47%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Atlético Madrid?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Getafe expecting 0.96 goals and Atlético Madrid 1.42.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Getafe vs Atlético Madrid?
Bawler's model expects 2.4 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 42%.
When are the Getafe v Atlético Madrid line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Getafe v Atlético Madrid?
Atlético Madrid or Draw (75%), Atlético Madrid Over 8.5 Shots (83%), Julián Álvarez 1+ Shot on Target (63%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 45% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.22). 18+, please gamble responsibly.