Atlético Madrid v Viking FK prediction
Our model gives Atlético Madrid a 62% chance of winning this Champions League game. A Viking FK win is 18% and a draw 20%. Our predicted score is Atlético Madrid 2–1 Viking FK, at 9%. Our expected goals are 2.4 for Atlético Madrid and 1.3 for Viking FK, 3.7 in all. Both teams scoring is 66% and three or more goals is 71%.
On shots, our forecast is 15.9 for Atlético Madrid and 8.1 for Viking FK, with 5.1 and 5.0 on target, and corners at 5.0 to 5.4. So we expect Atlético Madrid to do more of the shooting. Julián Álvarez is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.6 shots and 1.1 on target for Atlético Madrid, if they start. For cards, Johnny Cardoso (Atlético Madrid) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here.
In their last six games Atlético Madrid have three wins, one draw and two defeats, while Viking FK have two wins, two draws and two defeats. Atlético Madrid lost their most recent match and Viking FK won theirs.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Atlético Madrid · last 6
Viking FK · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Atlético Madrid to win is 62% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Viking FK?
Bawler's model rates this match: Atlético Madrid are favoured (62% win probability vs 18% for Viking FK, 20% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Madrid vs Viking FK?
Bawler's predicted score is Atlético Madrid 2-1 Viking FK: the most likely score if Atlético Madrid win, which is the likeliest result (62%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.2%. Expected total goals: 3.7.
How does Bawler predict Atlético Madrid vs Viking FK?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Atlético Madrid 62%, the draw 20% and Viking FK 18%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Viking FK?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 66% chance. That is based on Atlético Madrid expecting 2.42 goals and Viking FK 1.27.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Atlético Madrid vs Viking FK?
Bawler's model expects 3.7 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 71%.
When are the Atlético Madrid v Viking FK line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.