Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Lecce
Team profile · Italy: Serie A

Lecce Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
5
5 settled
Goals for
0.98
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.44
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
60%
3/5 calls

Lecce prediction: Bawler's model rates Lecce at 0.98 expected goals scored and 1.44 conceded per match across 5 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 60% of the time. They have lost 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Lecce fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Lecce sit close to the Serie A average on both sides of the ball, creating 0.98 expected goals a game and conceding 1.44. Across 5 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Lecce have been correct 60% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
2W 0D 3L
Real goals
0.8 – 1.4
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Lecce compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
0.98
Below average
Goals against
1.44
Leakier than most
Scored0.98
Conceded1.44

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.20 scored, 1.36 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 0.98 xG per match · -0.22 above the Italy: Serie A average of 1.20.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Lecce fixtures (3/4).

📊 Lecce in numbers

38 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
0.7
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
🏠 0.7✈️ 0.8
4.3
Corners · per game
give up 5.3
🏠 4.2✈️ 4.4
9.8
Shots · per game
faced 12.7
🏠 10.6✈️ 9.0
2.5
On target · per game
faced 4.3
🏠 2.8✈️ 2.3
🗓️ Last 6 games
24 May
1-0
vs Genoa
🚩 1-6
17 May
3-2
@ Sassuolo
🚩 8-2
09 May
0-1
vs Juventus
🚩 1-7
01 May
2-1
@ Pisa
🚩 1-6
25 Apr
0-0
@ Verona
🚩 4-2
20 Apr
1-1
vs Fiorentina
🚩 5-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Lecce matches
60%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 5

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Lecce fixture, it is right 3 out of 5 (60%). Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Transfer activity

INWillem GeubbelsSTfrom Paris FC€5m
OUTFilip MarchwinskiLWto CracoviaLoan
OUTThórir HelgasonCMto VeneziaFree transfer
OUTChristian FrüchtlGKto Salzburg€1m
OUTYlber RamadaniDMto Corum FK€1m
OUTÁlex SalaCMto MallorcaLoan
OUTJasper Samoojato HJKLoan
OUTMarco Delle MonacheLWto PinetoLoan
OUTRares BurneteSTto SüdtirolLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly