Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAS Roma on top: Donyell Malen to test the keeper, and Giovanni Fabbian kept busy stopping them.
Parma v AS Roma prediction
Our model gives AS Roma a 60% chance of winning this Serie A game. A Parma win is 17% and a draw 23%. Our predicted score is Parma 0–1 AS Roma, at 12%. We expect 2.8 goals in total: 0.9 for Parma and 1.9 for AS Roma. Both teams scoring is 50% and three or more goals is 52%.
On shots, our forecast is 10.4 for Parma and 15.1 for AS Roma, with 3.3 and 4.6 on target, and corners at 3.4 to 5.1. So we expect AS Roma to do more of the shooting. Donyell Malen is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.9 shots and 1.5 on target for AS Roma, if they start. For cards, Abdoulaye Ndiaye (Parma) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here.
On form, Parma have two wins, one draw and three defeats from their last six games, and AS Roma have four wins, one draw and one defeat. Bawler's pick combines AS Roma or Draw, Giovanni Fabbian 1+ Foul Committed and Donyell Malen 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 50%, a fair price of Evens (2.00).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Parma · last 6
AS Roma · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
AS Roma to win is 60% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Parma vs AS Roma?
Bawler's model rates this match: AS Roma are favoured (60% win probability vs 17% for Parma, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Parma vs AS Roma?
Bawler's predicted score is Parma 0-1 AS Roma: the most likely score if AS Roma win, which is the likeliest result (60%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.7%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Parma vs AS Roma?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Parma 17%, the draw 23% and AS Roma 60%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Parma vs AS Roma?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. That is based on Parma expecting 0.89 goals and AS Roma 1.88.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Parma vs AS Roma?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 52%.
When are the Parma v AS Roma line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Parma v AS Roma?
AS Roma or Draw (83%), Giovanni Fabbian 1+ Foul Committed (74%), Donyell Malen 1+ Shot on Target (74%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.00). 18+, please gamble responsibly.