Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelNapoli on top, and Scott McTominay getting plenty of shots away.
Napoli v Torino prediction
Napoli are favourites on our numbers: 52% to win, against 23% for Torino and 25% for a draw. Our predicted score is Napoli 1–0 Torino, the likeliest Napoli win score (10%). Our expected goals are 1.8 for Napoli and 1.1 for Torino, 2.9 in all. Both teams scoring is 55% and three or more goals is 55%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Napoli have won three, Torino one, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Napoli 2–1 Torino, in Mar 2026. On shots, our forecast is 17.0 for Napoli and 11.5 for Torino, with 5.4 and 3.4 on target, and corners at 5.6 to 2.9. So we expect Napoli to do more of the shooting.
Of the players, Scott McTominay of Napoli tops our shots forecast at 3.2, if they start. Giovanni Simeone (Torino) leads for shots on target, at 0.9. For cards, Zakaria Aboukhlal (Torino) has been booked about once a game in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. On form, Napoli have two wins, one draw and three defeats from their last six games, and Torino have three wins, one draw and two defeats. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Napoli or Draw, Napoli Over 12.5 Shots and Scott McTominay 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 52% on our numbers, so the fair price is 10/11, or 1.93.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Napoli · last 6
Torino · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Napoli or draw is 77% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Napoli vs Torino?
Bawler's model rates this match: Napoli are favoured (52% win probability vs 23% for Torino, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Torino?
Bawler's predicted score is Napoli 1-0 Torino: the most likely score if Napoli win, which is the likeliest result (52%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.9%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Napoli vs Torino?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Napoli 52%, the draw 25% and Torino 23%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Torino?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on Napoli expecting 1.77 goals and Torino 1.10.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Napoli vs Torino?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.
When are the Napoli v Torino line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Napoli v Torino?
Napoli or Draw (77%), Napoli Over 12.5 Shots (80%), Scott McTominay 2+ Shots (77%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.93). 18+, please gamble responsibly.