Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelLyon on top, and Corentin Tolisso getting plenty of shots away.
Lyon v Lillestrom prediction
Our model gives Lyon a 74% chance of winning this Europa League game. A Lillestrom win is 9% and a draw 17%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Lyon 2–0 Lillestrom, at 12%. We expect 3.1 goals in total: 2.4 for Lyon and 0.7 for Lillestrom. Both teams scoring is only 48% and three or more goals is 61%.
On shots, our forecast is 18.6 for Lyon and 8.2 for Lillestrom, with 5.0 and 3.4 on target, and corners at 6.8 to 3.4. So we expect Lyon to do more of the shooting. Corentin Tolisso is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.5 shots and 0.8 on target for Lyon, if they start. For cards, Ruben Kluivert (Lyon) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here.
On form, Lyon have two wins, one draw and three defeats from their last six games, and Lillestrom have four wins, no draws and two defeats. Bawler's pick combines Lyon or Draw, Lyon Over 14.5 Shots and Corentin Tolisso 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 50%, a fair price of Evens (1.99).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Lyon · last 6
Lillestrom · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Lyon to win is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Lyon vs Lillestrom?
Bawler's model rates this match: Lyon are favoured (74% win probability vs 9% for Lillestrom, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Lyon vs Lillestrom?
Bawler's predicted score is Lyon 2-0 Lillestrom: the most likely score if Lyon win, which is the likeliest result (74%). Our model puts that exact score at 12.4%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Lyon vs Lillestrom?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Lyon 74%, the draw 17% and Lillestrom 9%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Lillestrom?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Lyon expecting 2.40 goals and Lillestrom 0.74.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Lyon vs Lillestrom?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the Lyon v Lillestrom line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Lyon v Lillestrom?
Lyon or Draw (91%), Lyon Over 14.5 Shots (76%), Corentin Tolisso 2+ Shots (66%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.99). 18+, please gamble responsibly.