Lyon vs Angers prediction — Ligue 1 · Sun 1 Nov · 16:15 UK

Q: Who will win Lyon vs Angers?

Bawler's model rates this match: Lyon are favoured (63% win probability vs 15% for Angers, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

Q: What is the predicted score for Lyon vs Angers?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Lyon 2-0 Angers (10.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.

Q: How does Bawler predict Lyon vs Angers?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Lyon 63%, the draw 22% and Angers 15%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Q: Will both teams score in Lyon vs Angers?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on Lyon expecting 2.05 goals and Angers 0.91.

Q: Over or under 2.5 goals in Lyon vs Angers?

Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.

Ligue 1 · Sun 1 Nov · 16:15 UK

Lyon

VersusAngers

Lyon 63Draw 22Angers 15

Lyon to win has moved from 65% to 63% over 6 days

The call

63%

Lyon to win

Calls on the result published at 60–70% have landed 69% of the time

193 of 281 settledFull record →

3.0

Goals expected

4d 14hUntil lineups lock

Overview1st half2nd halfFormPlayers

Our combination for this match

3 legs · built by the model

Lyon or Draw85%

Lyon Over 13.5 Shots81%

Lyon Over 3.5 Corners83%

61%

chance all land

Build your own →Multiplying the legs gives 57%. These are from one match and move together, so the real chance is higher.

Team stats

What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.

Full matchFirst halfSecond halfLyonAngers

IN SHORTLyon are forecast to come out ahead on every measure here, with more than twice as many goals as Angers (2.1 v 0.9).

GoalsLyon +1.1

2.1

Last 6 avg 1.7

▲ Forecast 0.4 above recent

2+ goals in 3 of 6

0.9

Last 6 avg 1.0

▼ Forecast 0.1 below recent

1+ goals in 4 of 6

ShotsLyon +9.7

18.2

Last 6 avg 10.5

▲ Forecast 7.7 above recent

18+ shots in 0 of 6

8.5

Last 6 avg 11.3

▼ Forecast 2.8 below recent

9+ shots in 5 of 6

On targetLyon +2.9

5.9

Last 6 avg 4.8

▲ Forecast 1.1 above recent

6+ on target in 1 of 6

3.0

Last 6 avg 3.0

In line with recent

3+ on target in 5 of 6

CornersLyon +3.3

6.5

Last 6 avg 4.3

▲ Forecast 2.2 above recent

7+ corners in 1 of 6

3.3

Last 6 avg 5.5

▼ Forecast 2.2 below recent

3+ corners in 4 of 6

GoalsLyon +0.4

0.6

No recent record

2+ goals in 3 of 6

0.2

No recent record

1+ goals in 4 of 6

ShotsLyon +4.7

8.4

No recent record

18+ shots in 0 of 6

3.7

No recent record

9+ shots in 5 of 6

On targetLyon +1.4

2.7

No recent record

6+ on target in 1 of 6

1.3

No recent record

3+ on target in 5 of 6

CornersLyon +1.5

3.1

No recent record

7+ corners in 1 of 6

1.5

No recent record

3+ corners in 4 of 6

GoalsLyon +0.7

1.4

No recent record

2+ goals in 3 of 6

0.7

No recent record

1+ goals in 4 of 6

ShotsLyon +5.0

9.8

No recent record

18+ shots in 0 of 6

4.8

No recent record

9+ shots in 5 of 6

On targetLyon +1.5

3.2

No recent record

6+ on target in 1 of 6

1.6

No recent record

3+ on target in 5 of 6

CornersLyon +1.7

3.5

No recent record

7+ corners in 1 of 6

1.7

No recent record

3+ corners in 4 of 6

Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.

Match odds

How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.

Goal before half-time

At least one goal in the first 45 minutes.

Both teams score

Each side finds the net at least once.

3 or more goals

Three or more goals in the match, from either side.

Key takeaways

FAVOURITES

Lyon lead on every measure: goals (2.1 v 0.9), shots (18.2 v 8.5), on target (5.9 v 3.0).

OPEN GAME

Goals at both ends are likely: 52% both teams score, and 57% for three or more goals.

EARLY GOAL

Lyon are likelier to score first half: 63% to score before half-time, against 21% for Angers. 71% that either side does.

FORM CHECK

Lyon are forecast above recent form: 2.1 goals expected, against 1.7 on average over their last six.

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time. A longer bar means more likely.

7+ shots

67%

13%

9+ shots

45%

<10%

2+ shots on target

72%

36%

4+ shots on target

30%

<10%

2+ corners

76%

42%

4+ corners

37%

<10%

Our numbers, most likely first

Ranked by our probability, strongest first.

Market	Probability	6-day change
Lyon to score	87%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	−2
Under 3.5 goals	66%	+2

In plain English

Lyon are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Angers, and Angers have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.

What would change the call

Lyon to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.

Lyon lead 1–0 at half-time63% → 83%

Angers lead 1–0 at half-time63% → 19%

Goalless at half-time63% → 49%

Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

Lyon · last 6

Lat Paris Saint-Germain0–28 shots

Lat Hoffenheim0–38 shots

Wv Nice2–18 shots

Wv Crystal Palace3–211 shots

Lat Lens1–213 shots

Wv Rennes4–015 shots

Angers · last 6

Dv Lorient0–08 shots

Lv Marseille2–511 shots

Lat Brest1–59 shots

Wv Troyes2–012 shots

Dat Le Havre0–09 shots

Lv Rennes1–219 shots

First half — what we expect

Lyon

63%

to score before half-time

Angers

21%

to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%

LyonAngers

8.41st-half shots3.7

avg 5.2 · 3 away · 8+ in 1/6

avg 6.3 · 2 away · 4+ in 6/6

2.71st-half shots on target1.3

avg 2.7 · 3 away · 3+ in 3/6

avg 1.5 · 2 away · 1+ in 6/6

3.11st-half corners1.5

avg 2.0 · 3 away · 3+ in 3/6

avg 2.5 · 2 away · 2+ in 4/6

How the match splits

1st half2nd half

Shots · Lyon8.49.8

Shots · Angers3.74.8

Shots on target · Lyon2.73.2

Shots on target · Angers1.31.6

Corners · Lyon3.13.5

Corners · Angers1.51.7

How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Player forecasts

How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.

Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.

Lyon

1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target

Pavel Sulc

MF · 2.8 shots expected

94%

63%

26%

Corentin Tolisso

MF · 2.4 shots expected

91%

68%

32%

Afonso Moreira

MF · 2.4 shots expected

91%

54%

18%

Tanner Tessmann

MF · 1.5 shots expected

78%

41%

10%

Adam Karabec

MF · 1.3 shots expected

73%

45%

12%

Tyler Morton

MF · 1.3 shots expected

73%

35%

Angers

1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target

Sidiki Cherif

FW · 1.6 shots expected

80%

49%

15%

Prosper Peter

FW · 1.3 shots expected

73%

51%

16%

Louis Mouton

MF · 1.1 shots expected

68%

26%

Amine Sbaï

MF · 1.1 shots expected

68%

38%

Yassin Belkhdim

MF · 1.0 shots expected

63%

33%

Lilian Rao-Lisoa

MF · 0.7 shots expected

48%

22%

These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.

Model inputs

Lyon form (last 6)W L W W L L

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+1.1 / match

Head-to-head, last 5Lyon 4 · Draws 1 · Angers 0

Angers in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

Apr 2026Angers 0–0 Lyon

Sept 2025Lyon 1–0 Angers

May 2025Lyon 2–0 Angers

Dec 2024Angers 0–3 Lyon

Feb 2023Angers 1–3 Lyon

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Common questions

Who will win Lyon vs Angers?

Bawler's model rates this match: Lyon are favoured (63% win probability vs 15% for Angers, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Lyon vs Angers?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Lyon 2-0 Angers (10.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.

How does Bawler predict Lyon vs Angers?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Lyon 63%, the draw 22% and Angers 15%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.