Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Lille v Lyon prediction
Our model makes Lille favourites for this Ligue 1 game, giving them a 42% chance of winning. Lyon are 30% and the draw is 28%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Lille 1–0 Lyon, the most likely Lille win (11%). Lille are expected to score 1.4 goals and Lyon 1.2, 2.6 between them. Both teams scoring is 52% and three or more goals comes in at 48%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Lille have won none, Lyon four, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Lyon 1–0 Lille, in Feb 2026. Of the players, Soriba Diaoune of Lille tops our shots forecast at 2.4, if they start. Ernest Nuamah (Lyon) leads for shots on target, at 0.9. For cards, Ruben Kluivert (Lyon) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here.
In their last six games Lille have one win, three draws and two defeats, while Lyon have three wins, one draw and two defeats. Both drew their most recent match. On shots, our forecast is 13.9 for Lille and 10.1 for Lyon, with 4.4 and 3.5 on target, and corners at 6.1 to 4.2. So we expect Lille to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick combines Over 19.5 Total Shots, Over 7.5 Total Corners and Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 56%, a fair price of 4/5 (1.77).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Lille · last 6
Lyon · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Lille or draw is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Lille vs Lyon?
Bawler's model rates this match: Lille are favoured (42% win probability vs 30% for Lyon, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Lille vs Lyon?
Bawler's predicted score is Lille 1-0 Lyon: the most likely score if Lille win, which is the likeliest result (42%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.5%. Expected total goals: 2.6.
How does Bawler predict Lille vs Lyon?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Lille 42%, the draw 28% and Lyon 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Lyon?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on Lille expecting 1.42 goals and Lyon 1.16.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Lille vs Lyon?
Bawler's model expects 2.6 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 48%.
When are the Lille v Lyon line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Lille v Lyon?
Over 19.5 Total Shots (79%), Over 7.5 Total Corners (77%), Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target (78%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 56% chance, a fair price of 4/5 (1.77). 18+, please gamble responsibly.