Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelLiverpool on top, and Bradley Barcola getting plenty of shots away.
Club Brugge v Liverpool prediction
Liverpool are favourites on our numbers: 56% to win, against 24% for Club Brugge and 20% for a draw. Our predicted score is Club Brugge 1–2 Liverpool (8%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Our expected goals are 1.6 for Club Brugge and 2.4 for Liverpool, 4.0 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (72%) and three or more goals is 76%.
On form, Club Brugge have five wins, one draw and no defeats from their last six games, and Liverpool have three wins, one draw and two defeats. We expect Club Brugge to have 14.2 shots (5.5 on target) and Liverpool 18.9 (4.4 on target), and corners at 4.5 to 6.1. That points to Liverpool doing more of the attacking.
Bradley Barcola (Liverpool) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 2.9 shots if they start. Nicolò Tresoldi (Club Brugge) leads for shots on target, at 1.2. Joseph Gomez of Liverpool is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2025/26. Bawler's pick for this game is Liverpool or Draw, Liverpool Over 14.5 Shots and Bradley Barcola 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 48% chance, which makes the fair price 11/10 (2.09).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Club Brugge · last 6
Liverpool · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Liverpool or draw is 76% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Jupiler Pro League table →Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Club Brugge vs Liverpool?
Bawler's model rates this match: Liverpool are favoured (56% win probability vs 24% for Club Brugge, 20% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Club Brugge vs Liverpool?
Bawler's predicted score is Club Brugge 1-2 Liverpool: the most likely score if Liverpool win, which is the likeliest result (56%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.4%. Expected total goals: 4.0.
How does Bawler predict Club Brugge vs Liverpool?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Club Brugge 24%, the draw 20% and Liverpool 56%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge vs Liverpool?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 72% chance. That is based on Club Brugge expecting 1.57 goals and Liverpool 2.44.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Club Brugge vs Liverpool?
Bawler's model expects 4.0 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 76%.
When are the Club Brugge v Liverpool line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Club Brugge v Liverpool?
Liverpool or Draw (76%), Liverpool Over 14.5 Shots (78%), Bradley Barcola 2+ Shots (73%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.09). 18+, please gamble responsibly.