Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelLiverpool on top, and Bradley Barcola getting plenty of shots away.
Liverpool v Manchester United prediction
Our model gives Liverpool 50%, the draw 24% and Manchester United 26%, so Liverpool start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Liverpool 2–1 Manchester United, the most likely Liverpool win (9%). Liverpool are expected to score 1.9 goals and Manchester United 1.3, 3.2 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (62%) and three or more goals is 62%.
Liverpool come in with three wins, one draw and two defeats in their last six. Manchester United have one win, one draw and four defeats over the same run. We expect Liverpool to have 17.8 shots (5.4 on target) and Manchester United 13.7 (4.2 on target), and corners at 5.8 to 4.5. That points to Liverpool doing more of the attacking.
Joseph Gomez of Liverpool is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2025/26. Of their last five meetings on our records, Liverpool and Manchester United have two wins each, with one draw. The last meeting ended Manchester United 3–2 Liverpool, in May 2026. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Liverpool or Draw, Liverpool Over 13.5 Shots and Bradley Barcola 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 45% on our numbers, so the fair price is 5/4, or 2.23.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Liverpool · last 6
Manchester United · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Liverpool or draw is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Liverpool vs Manchester United?
Bawler's model rates this match: Liverpool are favoured (50% win probability vs 26% for Manchester United, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Manchester United?
Bawler's predicted score is Liverpool 2-1 Manchester United: the most likely score if Liverpool win, which is the likeliest result (50%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.4%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Liverpool vs Manchester United?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Liverpool 50%, the draw 24% and Manchester United 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Manchester United?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 62% chance. That is based on Liverpool expecting 1.89 goals and Manchester United 1.32.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Liverpool vs Manchester United?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 62%.
When are the Liverpool v Manchester United line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Liverpool v Manchester United?
Liverpool or Draw (74%), Liverpool Over 13.5 Shots (78%), Bradley Barcola 2+ Shots (71%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 45% chance, a fair price of 5/4 (2.23). 18+, please gamble responsibly.