Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction — Serie A · Sat 10 Oct · 14:00 UK

Serie A · Sat 10 Oct · 14:00 UK
35Genoa win27Draw38Fiorentina win
Full time
2–1

How it finished

Genoa beat Fiorentina 2–1. Genoa had 10 shots (4 on target) to Fiorentina's 13 (3), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 1.0.

GenoaFull-time statsFiorentina
37%Possession63%
1.4Expected goals (xG)1.0
10Shots13
4Shots on target3
7Shots inside box10
3Big chances0
3Corners4
3Saves2
11Fouls10
2Offsides2
5Yellow cards3
We predicted
0–1
Likeliest score if Fiorentina win (9%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (13%)
Expected goals
1.3v1.4
2.7 in total
Both teams score
55%
Leans yes
3+ goals
51%
Leans likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

GenoaGenoaFiorentinaFiorentina
1.3Goals1.4
15.3Shots12.2
3.2On target5.9
5.1Corners4.5
GenoaGenoaFiorentinaFiorentina
0.5Goals0.6
6.8Shots5.6
1.4On target2.7
2.4Corners2.1
GenoaGenoaFiorentinaFiorentina
0.8Goals0.8
8.5Shots6.7
1.8On target3.2
2.7Corners2.4

What we said the chances were

2 or more goals75%
Fiorentina to score75%
Genoa to score73%
3 goals or fewer71%
Goal before half-time66%

First half — what we expected

Genoa
39%
to score before half-time
Fiorentina
44%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

GenoaGenoaFiorentinaFiorentina
62%6+ shots46%
38%8+ shots23%
38%2+ shots on target71%
<10%4+ shots on target30%
87%1+ corners83%
41%3+ corners35%

League position

Fiorentina in their league tableLower half

Head to head

May 2026Fiorentina 0–0 Genoa
Nov 2025Genoa 2–2 Fiorentina
Feb 2025Fiorentina 2–1 Genoa
Oct 2024Genoa 0–1 Fiorentina
Apr 2024Fiorentina 1–1 Genoa
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Genoa form →Fiorentina form →

Common questions

Who won Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Genoa beat Fiorentina 2–1. Genoa had 10 shots (4 on target) to Fiorentina's 13 (3), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 1.0.

What was the final score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Genoa 35%, the draw 27% and Fiorentina 38%.

What were the stats in Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Full-time: Possession 37%–63%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–1.0, Shots 10–13, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 7–10, Big chances 3–0, Corners 3–4, Saves 3–2, Fouls 11–10, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 5–3.

Did both teams score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Yes — both Genoa and Fiorentina scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.