Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Gustavo Varela and Franco Mastantuono both getting shots away.
Monza v Fiorentina prediction
Our model gives Monza 34%, the draw 25% and Fiorentina 41%, so Fiorentina start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Monza 1–2 Fiorentina, the most likely Fiorentina win (9%). Monza are expected to score 1.5 goals and Fiorentina 1.7, 3.2 between them. Both teams scoring is 63% and three or more goals is 61%.
On shots, our forecast is 16.8 for Monza and 13.6 for Fiorentina, with 5.5 and 4.4 on target, and corners at 4.2 to 3.5. So we expect Monza to do more of the shooting. For cards, Lorenzo Lucchesi (Monza) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Monza and Fiorentina have two wins each, with one draw. When they last met, it finished Monza 2–1 Fiorentina, in Jan 2025. On form, Monza have one win, no draws and five defeats from their last six games, and Fiorentina have one win, two draws and three defeats. Bawler's pick combines Both Teams to Score, Over 25.5 Total Shots, Gustavo Varela 1+ Shot and Franco Mastantuono 1+ Shot. We make the chance of all four coming in 51%, a fair price of 10/11 (1.95).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Monza · last 6
Fiorentina · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Fiorentina or draw is 66% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Monza vs Fiorentina?
Bawler's model rates this match: Fiorentina are favoured (41% win probability vs 34% for Monza, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Monza vs Fiorentina?
Bawler's predicted score is Monza 1-2 Fiorentina: the most likely score if Fiorentina win, which is the likeliest result (41%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.6%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Monza vs Fiorentina?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Monza 34%, the draw 25% and Fiorentina 41%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Fiorentina?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 63% chance. That is based on Monza expecting 1.51 goals and Fiorentina 1.66.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Monza vs Fiorentina?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the Monza v Fiorentina line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Monza v Fiorentina?
Both Teams to Score (63%), Over 25.5 Total Shots (78%), Gustavo Varela 1+ Shot (91%), Franco Mastantuono 1+ Shot (90%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 51% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.95). 18+, please gamble responsibly.