Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelWolverhampton Wanderers on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Derby County prediction
Our model makes Wolverhampton Wanderers clear favourites for this Championship game, with a 67% chance of winning. Derby County are given 13%, and the draw 20%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Wolverhampton Wanderers 2–0 Derby County, at 12%. We expect 3.0 goals in total: 2.2 for Wolverhampton Wanderers and 0.8 for Derby County. Both sides are more likely than not to score (50%) and three or more goals is 57%.
We expect Wolverhampton Wanderers to have 16.1 shots (4.5 on target) and Derby County 9.8 (3.9 on target), and corners at 6.0 to 3.6. That points to Wolverhampton Wanderers doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, Wolverhampton Wanderers have won two, Derby County three. The last meeting ended Derby County 2–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers, in Jul 2018.
Wolverhampton Wanderers come in with four wins, two draws and no defeats in their last six. Derby County have one win, one draw and four defeats over the same run. Bawler's pick combines Wolverhampton Wanderers or Draw, Wolverhampton Wanderers Over 11.5 Shots, Wolverhampton Wanderers Over 2.5 Shots on Target and Wolverhampton Wanderers Over 3.5 Corners. We make the chance of all four coming in 48%, a fair price of 11/10 (2.07).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Wolverhampton Wanderers · last 6
Derby County · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win is 67% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County?
Bawler's model rates this match: Wolverhampton Wanderers are favoured (67% win probability vs 13% for Derby County, 20% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County?
Bawler's predicted score is Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0 Derby County: the most likely score if Wolverhampton Wanderers win, which is the likeliest result (67%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.6%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Wolverhampton Wanderers 67%, the draw 20% and Derby County 13%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. That is based on Wolverhampton Wanderers expecting 2.16 goals and Derby County 0.83.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.
When are the Wolverhampton Wanderers v Derby County line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Wolverhampton Wanderers v Derby County?
Wolverhampton Wanderers or Draw (87%), Wolverhampton Wanderers Over 11.5 Shots (82%), Wolverhampton Wanderers Over 2.5 Shots on Target (78%), Wolverhampton Wanderers Over 3.5 Corners (78%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.07). 18+, please gamble responsibly.