We predicted
1–0
Likeliest score if Queens Park Rangers win (10%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (13%)Expected goals
1.5v1.1
2.7 in totalBoth teams score
54%
Leans yes3+ goals
50%
Coin flipWhat we expected from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
1.5Goals1.1
19.9Shots9.6
6.8On target3.5
6.9Corners4.9
0.7Goals0.6
9.0Shots4.3
3.2On target1.5
3.3Corners2.3
0.9Goals0.6
10.9Shots5.3
3.6On target2.0
3.7Corners2.6
What we said the chances were
Queens Park Rangers to score78%
2 or more goals75%
3 goals or fewer72%
Goal before half-time71%
Derby County to score68%
First half — what we expected
48%
to score before half-time
44%
to score before half-time
First half — what we expected
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
62%8+ shots12%
41%10+ shots<10%
78%2+ shots on target43%
38%4+ shots on target<10%
79%2+ corners62%
40%4+ corners22%
League position
Derby County in their league tableBottom quarter
Head to head
Apr 2026Queens Park Rangers 2–3 Derby County
Oct 2025Derby County 1–0 Queens Park Rangers
Feb 2025Queens Park Rangers 4–0 Derby County
Oct 2024Derby County 2–0 Queens Park Rangers
Apr 2022Queens Park Rangers 1–0 Derby County
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who won Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County?
Queens Park Rangers beat Derby County 4–1.
What was the final score in Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County?
Queens Park Rangers 4–1 Derby County, played on 14 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Queens Park Rangers 45%, the draw 27% and Derby County 28%.
Did both teams score in Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County?
Yes — both Queens Park Rangers and Derby County scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.