What we expect · full match
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast.
What we expect
In plain English
Derby County are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have lost four of their last six. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Derby County or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Derby County · last 6
Stoke City · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Derby County vs Stoke City?
Bawler's model rates this match: Derby County are favoured (47% win probability vs 26% for Stoke City, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Derby County vs Stoke City?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Derby County 1-1 Stoke City (12.7% probability). Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Derby County vs Stoke City?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Derby County 47%, the draw 27% and Stoke City 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Derby County vs Stoke City?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on Derby County expecting 1.57 goals and Stoke City 1.12.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Derby County vs Stoke City?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.