Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAS Monaco on top, with Paris Brunner our likeliest to test the keeper.
Heart of Midlothian v AS Monaco prediction
AS Monaco go into this Conference League match as strong favourites on our numbers: 64% to win, against 15% for Heart of Midlothian and 21% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Heart of Midlothian 0–2 AS Monaco, at 10%. We expect 3.2 goals in total: 1.0 for Heart of Midlothian and 2.2 for AS Monaco. Both teams scoring is 55% and three or more goals is 61%.
On shots, our forecast is 14.2 for Heart of Midlothian and 14.0 for AS Monaco, with 5.4 and 3.3 on target, and corners at 4.7 to 5.9. Of the players, Paris Brunner of AS Monaco tops our shots forecast at 3.0, if they start. Cláudio Braga (Heart of Midlothian) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. For cards, Mamadou Coulibaly (AS Monaco) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here.
In their last six games Heart of Midlothian have one win, one draw and four defeats, while AS Monaco have two wins, two draws and two defeats. Heart of Midlothian lost their most recent match and AS Monaco drew theirs. For Bawler's pick we have gone with AS Monaco or Draw, AS Monaco Over 9.5 Shots and Paris Brunner 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 49% on our numbers, so the fair price is Evens, or 2.04.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Heart of Midlothian · last 6
AS Monaco · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
AS Monaco to win is 64% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premiership table →Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Heart of Midlothian vs AS Monaco?
Bawler's model rates this match: AS Monaco are favoured (64% win probability vs 15% for Heart of Midlothian, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Heart of Midlothian vs AS Monaco?
Bawler's predicted score is Heart of Midlothian 0-2 AS Monaco: the most likely score if AS Monaco win, which is the likeliest result (64%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.0%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Heart of Midlothian vs AS Monaco?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Heart of Midlothian 15%, the draw 21% and AS Monaco 64%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Heart of Midlothian vs AS Monaco?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on Heart of Midlothian expecting 0.98 goals and AS Monaco 2.19.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Heart of Midlothian vs AS Monaco?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the Heart of Midlothian v AS Monaco line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Heart of Midlothian v AS Monaco?
AS Monaco or Draw (85%), AS Monaco Over 9.5 Shots (83%), Paris Brunner 1+ Shot on Target (61%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.04). 18+, please gamble responsibly.