Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAS Monaco on top, with Paris Brunner our likeliest to test the keeper.
AS Monaco v AJ Auxerre prediction
Our model makes AS Monaco clear favourites for this Ligue 1 game, with a 61% chance of winning. AJ Auxerre are given 17%, and the draw 22%. If you want one score, our predicted score is AS Monaco 2–0 AJ Auxerre, the most likely AS Monaco win (10%). AS Monaco are expected to score 2.1 goals and AJ Auxerre 1.0, 3.0 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (55%) and three or more goals is 59%.
AS Monaco come in with three wins, one draw and two defeats in their last six. AJ Auxerre have three wins, one draw and two defeats over the same run. We expect AS Monaco to have 15.3 shots (5.3 on target) and AJ Auxerre 10.4 (3.5 on target), and corners at 5.6 to 3.7. That points to AS Monaco doing more of the attacking.
Of their last five meetings on our records, AS Monaco have won none, AJ Auxerre four, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended Monaco 2–2 Auxerre, in Apr 2026. Bawler's pick for this game is AS Monaco or Draw, AS Monaco Over 11.5 Shots and Paris Brunner 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 49% chance, which makes the fair price Evens (2.05).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
AS Monaco · last 6
AJ Auxerre · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
AS Monaco to win is 61% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre?
Bawler's model rates this match: AS Monaco are favoured (61% win probability vs 17% for AJ Auxerre, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre?
Bawler's predicted score is AS Monaco 2-0 AJ Auxerre: the most likely score if AS Monaco win, which is the likeliest result (61%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.0%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives AS Monaco 61%, the draw 22% and AJ Auxerre 17%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on AS Monaco expecting 2.06 goals and AJ Auxerre 0.98.
Over or under 2.5 goals in AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the AS Monaco v AJ Auxerre line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for AS Monaco v AJ Auxerre?
AS Monaco or Draw (83%), AS Monaco Over 11.5 Shots (77%), Paris Brunner 1+ Shot on Target (66%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.05). 18+, please gamble responsibly.