Villarreal beat Napoli 3–1. Villarreal had 17 shots (4 on target) to Napoli's 11 (3), with 52% of the ball against 48%. On expected goals it was 1.3 to 1.9, so Napoli created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Villarreal beat Napoli 3–1. Villarreal had 17 shots (4 on target) to Napoli's 11 (3), with 52% of the ball against 48%. On expected goals it was 1.3 to 1.9, so Napoli created the better chances and still lost the game.
Villarreal 3–1 Napoli, played on 13 Oct 2026 in the Europe: Champions League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Villarreal 50%, the draw 24% and Napoli 26%.
Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 1.3–1.9, Shots 17–11, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 8–10, Big chances 2–3, Corners 4–4, Saves 2–1, Fouls 8–15, Offsides 3–3, Yellow cards 2–3.
Yes — both Villarreal and Napoli scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 62% before kickoff.