FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Real Madrid 1–0 VillarrealMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Madrid to win at 62%. Bawler had Real Madrid at 62%, the draw at 20% and Villarreal at 18%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Madrid win
62%
Result
Draw
20%
Villarreal win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.2
Total 3.5
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Real Madrid to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.