FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Villarreal 0–0 ElcheMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Villarreal to win at 62%. Bawler had Villarreal at 62%, the draw at 21% and Elche at 17%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Villarreal win
62%
Draw
21%
Result
Elche win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.1
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 3.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Villarreal to win
Pre-match: 62%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 40%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.