FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Napoli 3–0 FrosinoneMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Napoli or draw at 78%. Bawler had Napoli at 53%, the draw at 24% and Frosinone at 22%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Napoli win
53%
Result
Draw
24%
Frosinone win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Napoli to win
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.