FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Villarreal 3–1 LevanteMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Villarreal at 55%, draw at 23%, Levante at 22%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Villarreal.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Villarreal win
55%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
Levante win
22%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.02 – 1.23
Total 3.25
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Villarreal's 0.90 expected-goals advantage and Gerard Moreno's presence in the final third make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 82% call, with a combined xG total of 3.12 suggesting a match unlikely to finish goalless."