FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Fiorentina 1–1 NapoliMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fiorentina at 38%, draw at 27%, Napoli at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Fiorentina to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fiorentina win
38%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Napoli win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 1.36
Total 2.78
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries a 74% forecast because Fiorentina's 1.38 xG and Napoli's 1.28 xG combine for a 2.67 total that tilts decisively toward a multi-goal outcome."