FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Fiorentina 1–1 NapoliMatch recap · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Fiorentina win
38%
Draw
27%
Result
Napoli win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.