FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Villarreal 3–1 NapoliMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Villarreal or draw at 74%. Bawler had Villarreal at 50%, the draw at 24% and Napoli at 26%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Villarreal win
50%
Result
Draw
24%
Napoli win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.3
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Villarreal or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 40%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.