FT · Spain: La Liga · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Málaga 1–3 VillarrealMatch recap · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Málaga win
33%
Draw
27%
Villarreal win
40%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.5
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 3.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.