FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Napoli 4–3 Bodo/GlimtMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Napoli or draw at 70%. Bawler had Napoli at 46%, the draw at 24% and Bodo/Glimt at 30%. The match finished 4–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Napoli win
46%
Result
Draw
24%
Bodo/Glimt win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
4 – 3
Total 7 (+3.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 2.5
From the match itself
The match produced 3.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Napoli or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 85%, as Napoli's 1.83 xG combined with Bodo/Glimt's 1.53 xG suggests both sides will find the net in this Champions League tie."