FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Venezia 1–0 NapoliMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Napoli or draw at 76%. Bawler had Venezia at 24%, the draw at 24% and Napoli at 52%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Venezia win
24%
Result
Draw
24%
Napoli win
52%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.9
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Medium confidence
Napoli to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.