FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Liverpool 4–3 VillarrealMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Liverpool to win at 67%. Bawler had Liverpool at 67%, the draw at 18% and Villarreal at 15%. The match finished 4–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Liverpool win
67%
Result
Draw
18%
Villarreal win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 1.1
Total 3.6
Actual
4 – 3
Total 7 (+3.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 3.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Liverpool to win
Pre-match: 67%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 39%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Liverpool's home win is the high-confidence call at 67%, built on a decisive 1.38 xG advantage and Mohamed Salah's 19% of team creation against Villarreal's 1.07 expected goals."