Bawler / USA: MLS / San Jose Earthquakes
Team profile · USA: MLS

San Jose Earthquakes Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
11
10 settled
Goals for
1.75
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.28
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
80%
8/10 calls

San Jose Earthquakes prediction: for San Jose Earthquakes's next match — San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis CITY on Sunday 16 Aug, 02:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a San Jose Earthquakes win looks most likely (45%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

San Jose Earthquakes carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.75 expected goals per game against a MLS average of 1.48. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Next up is St. Louis CITY SC, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 45%.

Next match

Home vs St. Louis CITY · Sunday 16 Aug, 02:30 UTC

Win
45%
This team
Draw
29%
Loss
26%
Opponent
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 85%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
3W 3D 4L
Real goals
1.6 – 1.8
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How San Jose Earthquakes compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.75
Above average
Goals against
1.28
Tighter than most
Scored1.75
Conceded1.28

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.75 xG per match · +0.28 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.28 xG per match · -0.17 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 83% of the time on San Jose Earthquakes fixtures (5/6).

📊 San Jose Earthquakes in numbers

44 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.7
Goals · per game
let in 1.8
🏠 2.0✈️ 1.4
6.0
Corners · per game
give up 5.0
🏠 7.0✈️ 5.0
14.8
Shots · per game
faced 12.7
🏠 16.9✈️ 12.8
5.5
On target · per game
faced 5.2
🏠 6.2✈️ 4.8
🗓️ Last 6 games
01 Aug
2-4
@ Cincinnati
🚩 -
26 Jul
1-1
vs LA Galaxy
🚩 -
23 Jul
0-4
vs Orlando City
🚩 -
24 May
3-1
@ Portland Timbers
🚩 6-4
17 May
2-3
vs Dallas
🚩 12-4
14 May
2-3
@ Seattle Sounders
🚩 6-9

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on San Jose Earthquakes matches
80%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 10

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a San Jose Earthquakes fixture, it is right 8 out of 10 (80%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on San Jose Earthquakes by market
Goals (Over/Under)83%5/6
Result75%3/4

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on San Jose Earthquakes fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for San Jose Earthquakes matches.

Recent matches (last 10)

Transfer activity

INAngus GunnGKfrom Free agentFree transfer
INLuka JovanovicSTfrom Adelaide United€600k
INJonathan GonzálezDMfrom FC JuarezUndisclosed
OUTDanielGKto FC Dallas€610k
OUTMark-Anthony KayeDMto SacramentoFree transfer
OUTMark-Anthony KayeDMto Free agentFree transfer
OUTWilson EisnerCBto San Diego FCFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

San Jose Earthquakes prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly