Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelSan Jose Earthquakes on top, and Preston Judd getting plenty of shots away.
San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo FC prediction
Our model makes San Jose Earthquakes favourites for this MLS game, giving them a 52% chance of winning. Houston Dynamo FC are 24% and the draw is 24%. Our predicted score is San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Houston Dynamo FC, the likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win score (10%). Our expected goals are 1.8 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.2 for Houston Dynamo FC, 3.0 in all. Both teams scoring is 58% and three or more goals is 57%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, San Jose Earthquakes have won two, Houston Dynamo FC one, and two were drawn. When they last met, it finished San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Houston Dynamo FC, in Sept 2026. On shots, our forecast is 17.5 for San Jose Earthquakes and 11.6 for Houston Dynamo FC, with 5.4 and 4.4 on target, and corners at 7.9 to 3.8. So we expect San Jose Earthquakes to do more of the shooting.
San Jose Earthquakes come in with one win, three draws and two defeats in their last six. Houston Dynamo FC have one win, three draws and two defeats over the same run. Bawler's pick for this game is San Jose Earthquakes or Draw, San Jose Earthquakes Over 13.5 Shots and Preston Judd 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 51% chance, which makes the fair price Evens (1.98).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
San Jose Earthquakes · last 6
Houston Dynamo FC · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
San Jose Earthquakes or draw is 76% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025–2026 and 2026, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
MLS table →Common questions
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC?
Bawler's model rates this match: San Jose Earthquakes are favoured (52% win probability vs 24% for Houston Dynamo FC, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC?
Bawler's predicted score is San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 Houston Dynamo FC: the most likely score if San Jose Earthquakes win, which is the likeliest result (52%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.6%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives San Jose Earthquakes 52%, the draw 24% and Houston Dynamo FC 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on San Jose Earthquakes expecting 1.81 goals and Houston Dynamo FC 1.16.
Over or under 2.5 goals in San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.
When are the San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo FC line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo FC?
San Jose Earthquakes or Draw (76%), San Jose Earthquakes Over 13.5 Shots (77%), Preston Judd 2+ Shots (79%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 51% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.98). 18+, please gamble responsibly.