What we expect
In plain English
Real Salt Lake are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have lost four of their last six, and San Jose Earthquakes have won three of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Real Salt Lake or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Bawler's model rates this match: Real Salt Lake are favoured (40% win probability vs 36% for San Jose Earthquakes, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Real Salt Lake 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes (10.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.38.
How does Bawler predict Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Real Salt Lake 40%, the draw 24% and San Jose Earthquakes 36%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
BTTS: Yes (66% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.74 and away expected goals 1.64.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.38. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).