Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelReal Madrid on top: Kylian Mbappé to test the keeper, and Yoel Lago kept busy stopping them.
Real Madrid v Celta Vigo prediction
Real Madrid go into this LaLiga match as strong favourites on our numbers: 70% to win, against 11% for Celta Vigo and 19% for a draw. Our predicted score is Real Madrid 2–0 Celta Vigo (12%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Real Madrid are expected to score 2.3 goals and Celta Vigo 0.8, 3.1 between them. There is a 49% chance both sides score and three or more goals is 59%.
We expect Real Madrid to have 20.1 shots (6.5 on target) and Celta Vigo 9.9 (3.7 on target), and corners at 6.7 to 3.0. That points to Real Madrid doing more of the attacking. Of the players, Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) tops both our lists, with 4.9 shots and 1.9 on target expected if they start. Vinícius Júnior of Real Madrid is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27.
Real Madrid come in with six wins, no draws and no defeats in their last six. Celta Vigo have two wins, one draw and three defeats over the same run. Of their last five meetings on our records, Real Madrid have won four, Celta Vigo one. The last meeting ended Celta Vigo 1–2 Real Madrid, in Mar 2026. Bawler's pick for this game is Real Madrid or Draw, Yoel Lago 1+ Foul Committed and Kylian Mbappé 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 58% chance, which makes the fair price 8/11 (1.72).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Real Madrid · last 6
Celta Vigo · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Real Madrid to win is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Bawler's model rates this match: Real Madrid are favoured (70% win probability vs 11% for Celta Vigo, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Bawler's predicted score is Real Madrid 2-0 Celta Vigo: the most likely score if Real Madrid win, which is the likeliest result (70%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.9%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Real Madrid 70%, the draw 19% and Celta Vigo 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Real Madrid expecting 2.28 goals and Celta Vigo 0.80.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the Real Madrid v Celta Vigo line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Real Madrid v Celta Vigo?
Real Madrid or Draw (89%), Yoel Lago 1+ Foul Committed (73%), Kylian Mbappé 1+ Shot on Target (81%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 58% chance, a fair price of 8/11 (1.72). 18+, please gamble responsibly.