Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelMiddlesbrough on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Middlesbrough v Swansea City prediction
Middlesbrough are favourites on our numbers: 58% to win, against 18% for Swansea City and 23% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Middlesbrough 1–0 Swansea City, the most likely Middlesbrough win (10%). We expect 2.9 goals in total: 1.9 for Middlesbrough and 1.0 for Swansea City. Both sides are more likely than not to score (54%) and three or more goals is 55%.
Middlesbrough come in with three wins, two draws and one defeat in their last six. Swansea City have two wins, no draws and four defeats over the same run. We expect Middlesbrough to have 18.4 shots (5.8 on target) and Swansea City 10.1 (3.2 on target), and corners at 7.9 to 3.5. That points to Middlesbrough doing more of the attacking.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Middlesbrough have won three, Swansea City one, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended Swansea City 2–2 Middlesbrough, in Apr 2026. Amario Cozier-Duberry (Middlesbrough) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 3.1 shots if they start. Adam Idah (Swansea City) leads for shots on target, at 1.0. Jay Fulton of Swansea City is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. Bawler's pick for this game is Middlesbrough or Draw, Middlesbrough Over 13.5 Shots, Middlesbrough Over 3.5 Shots on Target and Middlesbrough Over 4.5 Corners. Our model gives all four landing together a 49% chance, which makes the fair price 11/10 (2.06).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Middlesbrough · last 6
Swansea City · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Middlesbrough or draw is 82% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?
Bawler's model rates this match: Middlesbrough are favoured (58% win probability vs 18% for Swansea City, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?
Bawler's predicted score is Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea City: the most likely score if Middlesbrough win, which is the likeliest result (58%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.4%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Middlesbrough 58%, the draw 23% and Swansea City 18%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Middlesbrough expecting 1.92 goals and Swansea City 0.99.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Middlesbrough vs Swansea City?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.
When are the Middlesbrough v Swansea City line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Middlesbrough v Swansea City?
Middlesbrough or Draw (82%), Middlesbrough Over 13.5 Shots (81%), Middlesbrough Over 3.5 Shots on Target (79%), Middlesbrough Over 4.5 Corners (83%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.06). 18+, please gamble responsibly.