What we expect
In plain English
Middlesbrough should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Stoke City, and they have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Middlesbrough or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Bawler's model rates this match: Middlesbrough are favoured (50% win probability vs 24% for Stoke City, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Stoke City 1-1 Middlesbrough (12.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.75.
How does Bawler predict Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Stoke City 24%, the draw 26% and Middlesbrough 50%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
BTTS: Yes (54% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.09 and away expected goals 1.66.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.75. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).