Stoke City vs Middlesbrough prediction — Championship · Tue 13 Oct · 20:00 UK

Championship · Tue 13 Oct · 20:00 UK
23Stoke City win26Draw51Middlesbrough win
Full time
2–3

How it finished

Middlesbrough beat Stoke City 3–2. Stoke City had 8 shots (1 on target) to Middlesbrough's 20 (9), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 2.6.

Stoke CityFull-time statsMiddlesbrough
35%Possession65%
0.7Expected goals (xG)2.6
8Shots20
1Shots on target9
5Shots inside box16
0Big chances2
4Corners3
7Saves0
9Fouls11
1Offsides1
1Yellow cards1
We predicted
0–1
Likeliest score if Middlesbrough win (11%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (12%)
Expected goals
1.1v1.7
2.8 in total
Both teams score
53%
Leans yes
3+ goals
52%
Leans likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

Stoke CityStoke CityMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough
1.1Goals1.7
10.0Shots16.9
3.5On target6.5
3.6Corners5.9
Stoke CityStoke CityMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough
0.6Goals0.9
4.9Shots7.7
1.7On target3.0
1.7Corners2.8
Stoke CityStoke CityMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough
0.5Goals0.8
5.2Shots9.2
1.8On target3.5
1.9Corners3.1

What we said the chances were

Middlesbrough to score81%
Goal before half-time77%
2 or more goals76%
3 goals or fewer70%
Stoke City to score66%

First half — what we expected

Stoke City
44%
to score before half-time
Middlesbrough
59%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

Stoke CityStoke CityMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough
25%7+ shots59%
10%9+ shots37%
48%2+ shots on target76%
12%4+ shots on target35%
46%2+ corners71%
12%4+ corners31%

League position

Middlesbrough in their league tableTop quarter

Head to head

Jan 2026Stoke City 1–2 Middlesbrough
Sept 2025Middlesbrough 0–0 Stoke City
Feb 2025Stoke City 1–3 Middlesbrough
Sept 2024Middlesbrough 2–0 Stoke City
Aug 2024Middlesbrough 0–5 Stoke City
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Championship table →
All fixtures & results →Stoke City form →Middlesbrough form →

Common questions

Who won Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

Middlesbrough beat Stoke City 3–2. Stoke City had 8 shots (1 on target) to Middlesbrough's 20 (9), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 2.6.

What was the final score in Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough, played on 13 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Stoke City 23%, the draw 26% and Middlesbrough 51%.

What were the stats in Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

Full-time: Possession 35%–65%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–2.6, Shots 8–20, Shots on target 1–9, Shots inside box 5–16, Big chances 0–2, Corners 4–3, Saves 7–0, Fouls 9–11, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 1–1.

Did both teams score in Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?

Yes — both Stoke City and Middlesbrough scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.