Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelArsenal on top, and Kai Havertz getting plenty of shots away.
Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund prediction
Our model gives Arsenal a 68% chance of winning this Champions League game. A Borussia Dortmund win is 12% and a draw 20%. Our predicted score is Arsenal 2–0 Borussia Dortmund, at 12%. Our expected goals are 2.1 for Arsenal and 0.8 for Borussia Dortmund, 2.9 in all. Both teams scoring is only 47% and three or more goals is 55%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Arsenal have won two, Borussia Dortmund three. When they last met, it finished Arsenal 2–3 Borussia Dortmund, in Aug 2026. Of the players, Kai Havertz of Arsenal tops our shots forecast at 2.5, if they start. Serhou Guirassy (Borussia Dortmund) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. For cards, Emre Can (Borussia Dortmund) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here.
On shots, our forecast is 18.4 for Arsenal and 7.2 for Borussia Dortmund, with 4.6 and 2.4 on target, and corners at 6.7 to 2.5. So we expect Arsenal to do more of the shooting. In their last six games Arsenal have four wins, two draws and no defeats, while Borussia Dortmund have five wins, one draw and no defeats. Both won their most recent match. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Arsenal or Draw, Arsenal Over 13.5 Shots and Kai Havertz 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 53% on our numbers, so the fair price is 10/11, or 1.89.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Arsenal · last 6
Borussia Dortmund · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Arsenal to win is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bawler's model rates this match: Arsenal are favoured (68% win probability vs 12% for Borussia Dortmund, 20% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bawler's predicted score is Arsenal 2-0 Borussia Dortmund: the most likely score if Arsenal win, which is the likeliest result (68%). Our model puts that exact score at 12.4%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Arsenal 68%, the draw 20% and Borussia Dortmund 12%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Arsenal expecting 2.10 goals and Borussia Dortmund 0.77.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.
When are the Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund?
Arsenal or Draw (88%), Arsenal Over 13.5 Shots (82%), Kai Havertz 2+ Shots (67%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 53% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.89). 18+, please gamble responsibly.