Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelArsenal on top, and Eberechi Eze getting plenty of shots away.
Newcastle United v Arsenal prediction
Our model gives Newcastle United 21%, the draw 25% and Arsenal 53%, so Arsenal start as favourites. Our predicted score is Newcastle United 0–1 Arsenal: the most likely score if Arsenal win, at 11%. We expect 2.7 goals in total: 1.0 for Newcastle United and 1.7 for Arsenal. Both teams scoring is 52% and three or more goals is 51%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Newcastle United have won one, Arsenal four. When they last met, it finished Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle United, in Apr 2026. On shots, our forecast is 11.3 for Newcastle United and 16.8 for Arsenal, with 3.7 and 5.1 on target, and corners at 4.2 to 5.6. So we expect Arsenal to do more of the shooting.
Of the players, Eberechi Eze of Arsenal tops our shots forecast at 2.5, if they start. Kai Havertz (Arsenal) leads for shots on target, at 0.9. For cards, Nico González (Newcastle United) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. In their last six games Newcastle United have one win, one draw and four defeats, while Arsenal have four wins, two draws and no defeats. Newcastle United drew their most recent match and Arsenal won theirs. Bawler's pick combines Arsenal or Draw, Arsenal Over 12.5 Shots and Eberechi Eze 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 45%, a fair price of 5/4 (2.23).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Newcastle United · last 6
Arsenal · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Arsenal or draw is 79% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Bawler's model rates this match: Arsenal are favoured (53% win probability vs 21% for Newcastle United, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Bawler's predicted score is Newcastle United 0-1 Arsenal: the most likely score if Arsenal win, which is the likeliest result (53%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.2%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Newcastle United 21%, the draw 25% and Arsenal 53%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on Newcastle United expecting 1.00 goals and Arsenal 1.71.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Newcastle United vs Arsenal?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 51%.
When are the Newcastle United v Arsenal line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Newcastle United v Arsenal?
Arsenal or Draw (79%), Arsenal Over 12.5 Shots (79%), Eberechi Eze 2+ Shots (66%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 45% chance, a fair price of 5/4 (2.23). 18+, please gamble responsibly.