What we expect
Our forecast for this match. The tick on each bar is that side’s average over their last six.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches or fewer
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast. Fleetwood Town: last 3 matches; Arsenal: last 6 matches.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first.
In plain English
Arsenal are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won five of their last six, and the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Fleetwood Town. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Arsenal to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Fleetwood Town · last 3
Arsenal · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal?
Bawler's model rates this match: Arsenal are favoured (68% win probability vs 12% for Fleetwood Town, 20% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Fleetwood Town 0-2 Arsenal (12.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Fleetwood Town 12%, the draw 20% and Arsenal 68%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Fleetwood Town expecting 0.79 goals and Arsenal 2.16.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.