What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025 and 2026 seasons in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Bawler's model rates this match: San Diego FC are favoured (41% win probability vs 35% for Philadelphia Union, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is San Diego FC 1-1 Philadelphia Union (10.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.25.
How does Bawler predict San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives San Diego FC 41%, the draw 25% and Philadelphia Union 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?
BTTS: Yes (64% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.70 and away expected goals 1.55.
Over or under 2.5 goals in San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.25. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).