FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Philadelphia Union 2–1 Real Salt LakeMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Philadelphia Union to win at 60%. Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 60%, the draw at 21% and Real Salt Lake at 19%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Philadelphia Union win
60%
Result
Draw
21%
Real Salt Lake win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.2
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.