FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Sporting Kansas City 3–4 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sporting Kansas City at 18%, draw at 20%, Philadelphia Union at 61%. The match ended 3-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Philadelphia Union.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
18%
Draw
20%
Union win
61%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.20 – 2.30
Total 3.50
Actual
3 – 4
Total 7 (+3.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 61%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 84%, driven by Philadelphia Union's 0.96 xG advantage and Tai Baribo's striker role accounting for 26% of team creation in a fixture forecast to produce 3.32 total expected goals."