FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Red Bull New York 1–3 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Red Bull New York at 33%, draw at 23%, Philadelphia Union at 43%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Philadelphia Union.
> Pre-match probability vs result
York win
33%
Draw
23%
Union win
43%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.86
Total 3.46
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 86% as both teams combine for 3.46 expected goals, with Philadelphia's 1.86 xG—led by striker Tai Baribo's 26% team share—pressing a narrow xG gap that favors an open contest."