FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Austin FC 3–3 San Diego FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Austin FC at 32%, draw at 25%, San Diego FC at 42%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was San Diego FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
32%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
FC win
42%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.40 – 1.62
Total 3.02
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"San Diego's 1.62 expected goals and 10-point win-probability edge make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 80% call in a fixture projecting 3.02 total xG."