FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 21 September 2026
Inter Miami CF 2–2 San Diego FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 21 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 57%, draw at 20%, San Diego FC at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Inter Miami CF to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CF win
57%
Draw
20%
Actual ✓
FC win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.40 – 1.52
Total 3.91
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 90%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 90% confidence because Inter Miami's 2.38 xG—anchored by creator Messi's 35% of team chances—gives them a 0.89 advantage over San Diego's 1.49."