FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
San Diego FC 3–1 LA GalaxyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had San Diego FC at 54%, draw at 23%, LA Galaxy at 23%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward San Diego FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
Galaxy win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.02 – 1.28
Total 3.30
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"San Diego's dominant 0.74 expected-goals edge and 54% win probability forecast Over 1.5 Goals at 84%, with the hosts creating significantly more clear chances than Riqui Puig's Galaxy can generate."