FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Philadelphia Union 4–2 Orlando City SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 60%, draw at 20%, Orlando City SC at 20%. The match ended 4-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Philadelphia Union.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Union win
60%
Actual ✓
Draw
20%
SC win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.39 – 1.34
Total 3.73
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 60%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Philadelphia's home advantage translates to a decisive 1.05 expected-goals edge, making a Union win the model's 60% forecast."