FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Red Bull New York 4–1 San Diego FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Red Bull New York or draw at 62%. Bawler had Red Bull New York at 39%, the draw at 24% and San Diego FC at 38%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Red Bull New York win
39%
Result
Draw
24%
San Diego FC win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.7
Total 3.4
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.0 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.