FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
San Diego FC 2–3 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 10 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had San Diego FC at 47%, draw at 23%, San Jose Earthquakes at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was San Diego FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
47%
Draw
23%
Earthquakes win
31%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.02 – 1.63
Total 3.65
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 88%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 69%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 88% confidence because San Diego's 2.02 expected goals and 0.40 xG advantage creates a high-scoring environment against San Jose's 1.63 xG output."