FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 14 September 2026
San Diego FC 0–5 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 14 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had San Diego FC at 40%, draw at 24%, Philadelphia Union at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-5. The model's headline call was San Diego FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
40%
Draw
24%
Union win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.69 – 1.57
Total 3.25
Actual
0 – 5
Total 5 (+1.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 84% because San Diego's 1.69 xG and Philadelphia's 1.57 xG combine for an attacking fixture that overwhelms defensive execution."